Key takeaways
- A high-speed train collision near Toledo on October 28 killed 69 people and shifted Spain’s campaign away from the social issues the Socialists had hoped to highlight, toward rail safety and government competence.
- Al Jazeera reported that the latest polls put the PP at 31.5 percent, the Socialists at 26.7 percent and Vox at 19.1 percent, and two polls published before the crash suggested the PP and Vox together could secure an absolute majority.
- The Toledo collision is the third deadly train disaster in Spain this year, and protesters in Madrid demanded Transport Minister Óscar Puente’s resignation.
Spain’s general election campaign, already shaped by the housing crisis, corruption scandals and the Ceuta migrant crossing, was overtaken on October 28 by a rail disaster. A high-speed train on the Madrid-Seville line struck a stationary train near Toledo, killing 69 people and injuring scores more. The cause is still under investigation.
Sánchez called the snap election after images of 87-year-old Maricarmen Abascal being evicted from her Madrid apartment went viral in late September, and his Socialists had planned a campaign built on social policy. With the election set for November 29, the main parties suspended pre-campaign events after the tragedy, with the exception of Vox. The PP and Vox pressed demands for government accountability, and Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez’s government faced questions about its rail record.
What Happened and Who Is Being Blamed
Transport Minister Óscar Puente said the collision was caused by both a computer system failure and apparent human error. He said ADIF personnel took manual control of the LZB train-control system and allowed the high-speed train to continue past a red light. He said the computer failure led to an issue with the LZB system along a 40-mile stretch of track, causing all trains in the area to be stopped automatically. The crash occurred near Urda, in Toledo province, on the Madrid-Seville high-speed corridor. Puente described the railway as “reliable and safe,” while acknowledging the limits imposed by equipment and human error, and unions immediately balked at his account.
Vox filed a criminal complaint for homicide against Puente, and Frente Amplio has demanded that he appear before parliament to explain what happened. PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo said the party would suspend campaign activities for two days, adding: “This is the moment to respect the dead, the injured and their families.” Vox leader Santiago Abascal accused Sánchez of “criminal handling of affairs.”
Isabel Pardo de Vera, a former president of ADIF, criticised the government over the transition from the older LZB system to the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS). The transport ministry is working to upgrade the LZB system, which was introduced in 1992 and has already been phased out in other parts of the country. The ministry has previously announced hundreds of millions of euros of investments into modernizing the high-speed rail network. The investigation still has to establish what caused the collision and whether human, technical or coordination failures were involved.
Spain’s November 29 Election: Key Numbers
Al Jazeera reported that the latest polls put the PP at 31.5%, the PSOE at 26.7% and Vox at 19.1%. Two polls published around 26 October, before the crash, put the PP at 30.6% (El Mundo) and around 32% (El Español). The Toledo crash on October 28 killed 69 people and was the third deadly train disaster in Spain this year.
The Third Crash This Year
The Toledo collision is the third deadly train disaster in Spain this year. Spain’s high-speed network carried about 45 million passengers last year, and the crash revived memories of Angrois, where 80 people died in a derailment in 2013. In January, the Adamuz accident killed 46 people, and Sánchez said: “it’s clear that we have suffered two terrible tragedies involving high-speed rail in the same year.” Spain has the largest high-speed rail network in the EU, and between 2018 and 2022 that network grew by nearly 1,000 km (570 miles). A European Union report based on the most recent statistics from 2024 notes that most funds for rail infrastructure were allocated to new lines, “whereas upgrades and renewals played a minor role.”
A survey conducted by Spanish media in January, after the previous fatal crash, found that 57 percent of respondents believed rail services had deteriorated since Sánchez took office, while nearly 60 percent said they had little or no confidence in the country’s railway system. That survey predated the Toledo crash and was cited by Al Jazeera.
Separate investigations have targeted Sánchez’s wife, Begoña Gómez, over alleged influence-peddling and business corruption, and his brother, David Sánchez, over the circumstances of his public-sector appointment. Both deny wrongdoing. In late July, 80,000 migrants crossed into Spain’s North African enclave of Ceuta, and the Socialists faced a backlash from right-wing parties and security personnel over alleged failures to adequately invest in border infrastructure.
Yolanda Roman, global director for public affairs at ATREVIA, said that “after this major tragedy the political framing for the election changed dramatically in all senses.” She explained that the government would now have to spend more time defending its record and answering questions about accountability. She also said the crash could make it harder for Sánchez to mobilise the hundreds of thousands of undecided left-wing voters he had hoped to bring to the polls.
Where the Polls Stand
Al Jazeera reported that the latest polls put the PP at 31.5 percent, the Socialists at 26.7 percent and Vox at 19.1 percent. Two polls published around 26 October, before the crash, had the PP stronger: El Mundo put it at 30.6 percent with 125 to 131 seats, and El Español put it at around 32 percent with 135 seats. Euronews reported that both polls suggested the PP and Vox together could secure an absolute majority.
The Centre for Sociological Research (CIS) placed the PSOE well ahead of the PP in its latest barometer. Euronews noted that the sharp differences between polls add further uncertainty to a pre-election period.
Grégoire Roos, director of the Europe program at Chatham House, said the train disaster is unlikely to be the tipping point of an election in which Sánchez is already polling behind, but it could fuel right-wing opposition parties. Spanish journalist and political analyst Ramón González Férriz told CNN that the successive train disasters are unlikely to push left-wing voters to switch to the right, but could increase the number of people who decide to stay home on election day.
after this major tragedy the political framing for the election changed dramatically in all senses.
What Happens Next
Sánchez said his government is working to “clarify every last detail of this tragedy and of course to reinforce security so that this does not happen again.” He added: “if there has been negligence, it will come to light.” He also said: “We will rebuild trust in our high-speed system.”
Unions stressed the need for a full investigation. The railway workers’ union UGT said it did not accept that “the actions of one single worker are placed under the microscope while the managerial decision and corporate policies are relegated to the background.”
Euronews noted that the political debate is already moving faster than the investigation.
